Businesses and Researchers Facing the Challenges of an Uncertain World

When our activities plunge us into an era of uncertainty

Today’s world is characterized by growing uncertainty and multiple, interconnected crises—social, economic, and environmental. Climate change, the loss of biodiversity, and the unsustainable use of natural resources are plunging us into a future whose contours are becoming increasingly unclear. In this new era of imbalance between terrestrial and social systems—referred to in many fields of economic and social science as the Anthropocene—the impact of human activities has become a major force with consequences for everyone: citizens, as well as national and local public officials. but also economic actors from all sectors and at all levels.

Economic actors—primarily businesses—must adapt to a constantly changing environment while rethinking their strategy. They must anticipate risks and take action on multiple fronts. They must start reducing their greenhouse gas emissions today, along with their material footprint—that is, the raw materials used to meet their production needs and consumer demand—and their impact on biodiversity and other critical resources such as water. At the same time, they must meet the needs of their stakeholders: employees, suppliers, customers, and investors. Traditional Approaches to Strategy — short-sighted and based on the erroneous assumption that the past is a relevant benchmark for predicting the future — are no longer sufficient to ensure the long-term viability of businesses. We must now explore other possibilities to stay on course in the midst of the storm. Foresight thus becomes not only a powerful tool but also a necessary one.

The Anthropocene also opens up a new field of research that spans many academic disciplines. Experts in the physical and life sciences, as well as in economics, sociology, and the fields of business and management, are grappling with the challenges it presents.. They must attempt to outline the biogeophysical and socioeconomic contours of the changes to come and To do so, they need to collaborate across existing disciplinary silos. This involves working not only with researchers from various fields of expertise but also in direct contact with economic and political stakeholders and society at large. Only through this communication and mutual listening across disciplines and fields of activity will it be possible to reconcile theoretical reflections on the actions and strategies to be implemented with the realities and complexities on the ground.

One thing is certain: the Anthropocene affects every sector, every region, and each and every one of us. It would be risky—even fatal—for a company to develop its strategy in isolation and based on a future that is incompatible with our planet’s physical limits. It is therefore by drawing on all areas of expertise that we will be able to collectively address these challenges.

A Word to Decision-Makers: What Are the Obstacles to the Anthropocene Strategy?

It is to address these challenges and facilitate this dialogue that the Carbone 4 - emlyon business school Teaching and Research Chair “Strategy in the Anthropocene"organized the workshop in 2025" Designing Alternative Futures, Strategies, and Systems—Changes in the Anthropocene.

This unique workshop brought together nearly 50 participants from the business and research communities, including about ten doctoral students and early-career researchers, to build bridges between “practitioners”—including executives as well as experts working in political, social, or economic organizations—and researchers.

The central question: How do we develop strategy in the Anthropocene era? The concept: to bring real-world business challenges into the realm of strategic research, while also demonstrating the breadth and diversity of research to business leaders. There is only one guideline: listen to one another and try to understand each other.

Over the course of a day and a half of presentations, panel discussions, and workshops, participants were able to explore three topics:

1. Shaping the Future in the Anthropocene : How can we imagine, conceptualize, and learn from alternative, possible, and desirable futures?
2. Strategy and Organization in the Anthropocene : How can we develop a common scientific strategic framework for the challenges of the Anthropocene?
3. Designing Systemic Change in the Anthropocene : How can we encourage or facilitate systemic transformations among stakeholders and across disciplines and regions?

Throughout the sessions, testimonials from executives demonstrated the importance of placing foresight and collaboration with the research community at the heart of corporate strategic and decision-making processes.

Theme 1 - Building and Sharing Possible Futures in the Anthropocene
How can we imagine, anticipate, and bring about alternative futures?

Foresight is a process of reflecting on the future and exploring possible futures. This exploration helps identify blind spots in a “business-as-usual” strategy and implement various tools to respond to changes that a company might not have anticipated.

But to “engage in foresight,” we must first “construct” futures—and construct them in a coherent manner—coherent not only with the possible developments of other companies and markets but also with the biogeophysical reality of our planet.

Therefore:

• How can we build futures that are coherent and/or compatible across different perspectives (businesses, regions, public authorities) and different levels (from global to local)?
• How can we establish shared frameworks (scenarios, methodological frameworks) to promote dialogue and cooperation?
• How can we move beyond “business as usual” and envision futures that are both possible (in light of planetary boundaries and the finite nature of our planet), livable (in terms of social and human challenges), and dynamic or engaging (in terms of the systemic transformations that need to be implemented)?
• How can we avoid both inertia (in the face of uncertainty and disruption) and the illusion of control (a unilateral adaptation strategy)?

Theme 2 - Thinking About and Developing Strategy in the Anthropocene
How Can We Develop a Shared Strategic Framework for the Anthropocene?

Using the results of foresight studies to inform strategy is not common practice and can be complex. In large companies, foresight specialists and strategists are not necessarily the same people, teams, or departments. They often speak a language with its own specific vocabulary and draw on often-differing perspectives. Conversely, in smaller companies, where one person may fill multiple roles, there may not be enough time or flexibility to consider how to implement the results of a foresight exercise. Furthermore, foresight and strategy, as practiced today, do not share the same success metrics.

Therefore:

• How can we rethink what is strategically desirable? How can we resolve the dilemmas and paradoxes between the pursuit of short-term performance and the pursuit of long-term collective resilience?
• How can an organization align its own prosperity with that of the things on which it depends (natural ecosystems, other actors in its region, and its stakeholders)?
• How can we envision the future of our organization in terms of both innovation and what we must let go of?
• How can we rethink corporate governance and develop alternative models?
• How can we think strategically as a group—within the same company and with other stakeholders—across our value chain, our industry, and beyond?

Theme 3 - Taking Action in the Anthropocene
How can we initiate and orchestrate systemic transformations?

Using foresight to update a strategy is therefore no easy task. Not only must we update our worldview—that simplified representation of our environment and our place within it that provides us with the keys to understanding and taking action—but we must also have the courage and the ability to implement changes that go against prevailing trends. All of this must be done in a coherent manner, while involving one’s teams, clients, funders, and constituents.

This raises the question of change—not just within one’s own company, but within its broader environment. Action in the Anthropocene can no longer be understood at the level of one’s organization but must be considered at the level of a collective, in order to bring about systemic transformations. One must be able to understand one’s environment and its limits.

Therefore:

• How can we rethink the role of our organization—not only within its market or industry, but also within the systems (ecological, socioeconomic, technical) on which it depends and to which it contributes?
• How can an organization assess its interdependencies and vulnerabilities with respect to the other actors (both human and non-human) with whom it interacts?
• What role, influence, and capacity for action should one develop within one’s organization and beyond to strengthen collective resilience?
• How can we develop decision-makers' ability to think systemically?
• How can we build coalitions among stakeholders at different levels to foster resilience?

Looking Toward the Future(s)

The concrete actions needed to address the challenges of the Anthropocene are neither simple nor obvious. They are, however, necessary. The practice of foresight, commitment at all levels of a company and with all its stakeholders, and ongoing dialogue between research and action on the ground will make it possible to develop tools tailored to the challenges facing businesses today—and, above all, tomorrow.

IF Initiative and the Carbone 4 Chair on “Strategy in the Anthropocene”: Co-developing New Tools for Strategy

Bringing together stakeholders from the business and academic worlds to collaboratively develop new strategic tools and methods—that is precisely the focus of the work atIF Initiative by Carbone 4. The initiative, launched in 2023, has set itself a challenge that is ambitious to say the least: to collaborate with some twenty pioneering companies and researchers from various disciplines in the social and physical sciences to create new strategic decision-making tools (risk analyses, responses to regulatory requirements, and exploration of multiple futures to rethink business models and foster innovation). A key feature: all of IF Initiative’s analyses are based on rigorous scientific frameworks and physically realistic future scenarios, which explore various socioeconomic trends while taking into account environmental and resource-use issues.

The a research and teaching chair launched by Carbone 4 and emlyon business school titled “Strategy in the Anthropocene"is an embodiment of the dialogue between earth sciences and business strategy". The chair’s activities are based on an observation. On the one hand, companies face numerous practical challenges in updating their strategies. On the other hand, management researchers focus on the—often theoretical—drivers of business transformation. But these two worlds—which face similar issues yet have very different environments, indicators of success, approaches, and timeframes for action—communicate little with one another and do not share a common language.

Through this collaboration, IF Initiative is establishing new platforms for exchange, new educational content, and new formats for disseminating the latest academic and practical advances in Anthropocene strategy. By establishing a common vocabulary, its goal is to build bridges between leaders, practitioners, and researchers on issues of strategy in an era of uncertainty.

Businesses are an integral part of IF Initiative’s work. Its tools are developed based on discussions with—and issues raised by—its member companies. The teams at IF Initiative also work directly with partners to help them explore various scenarios and familiarize themselves with foresight tools so they can apply them in their strategic studies. Dialogue is therefore at the heart of its activities.